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Alcohol- and tobacco-related mortality to rise in Central Europe
Mortality rates for cancers of all sites related to tobacco and alcohol use are expected to increase significantly in several central European countries, according to a recent study by International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) researchers [1]. These predicted increases are of particular concern as they are on top of already high rates in Central Europe.
The team, from IARC's Unit of Environmental Cancer Epidemiology in Lyon, looked at mortality data from 1965 to 1994 in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia for cancers of the oesophagus, oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, kidney, bladder and pancreas. They then calculated smoothed observed rates using a Bayesian age-period-cohort approach and extrapolated the effects of period and cohort to estimate mortality rates for 1995-1999, 2000-2004 and 2005-2009.
The results of the study indicate that further increases in mortality for all sites can be expected in most of these countries. The highest projected rates for most sites are expected in Hungary, and mortality from cancers of the oral cavity, pharynx and larynx in particular are expected to rapidly increase in Hungarian men. The smoothed mortality rates for these two sites are projected to rise from 16.32 per 100,000 for cancer of the oral cavity and pharynx and 8.70 per 100,000 for cancer of the larynx to 35.17 per 100,000 and 14.12 per 100,000 respectively by the period 2000-2004. The Czech Republic and Slovakia (analysed together) had the highest observed and projected mortality rates for kidney cancer. The smoothed 1990-1994 rate of 8.37 per 100,000 is projected to increase by a dramatic 24% to 10.38 per 100,000 by 2000-2004.
The authors concluded that, "policies to reduce alcohol consumption and prevent smoking in younger generations are necessary to reduce mortality as these cohorts age". Dr Jan Willem Coebergh from the Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics at Erasmus University Medical School, Rotterdam, and EJC Editor for Epidemiology said; "This paper reveals a terrible societal problem which can not be ignored. It also illustrates a growing need for more modern treatment facilities, for example, radiation therapy, in these countries". Commenting on the need for policies to reduce alcohol and tobacco consumption, he said "There is a real need for marked rises in taxes (to pay for care), and restrictions on availability and advertising. I hope this paper will provoke a proper reaction from the authorities and politicians and also the various companies involved in the supply of these addictive substances. If enacted soon enough we may see a downward deviation of these terrible trends".
1Bray I, Brennan P, Boffetta P. Projections of alcohol- and tobacco-related cancer mortality in Central Europe. Int J Cancer 2000, 87, 122-128.
European Journal of Cancer
International Cancer News
Compiled by: Brad Timms (Acting News Editor)
European Journal of Cancer: 36 (2000) pp1725-1729
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