Chapter 33

The New Economy and Business Cycles
F. Louçã (ISEG)

We are now living through an industrial revolution of immense scope which has diverse implications. This time the pervasive and radical nature of the wave of technical change is less controversial then in previous events of the kind, although its real dimension and impact are necessarily discussed. Even those who have disputed the revolutionary character of earlier waves of social and technical change have often little difficulty in accepting that a vast technological revolution is now taking place, based on the electronic computer, micro-electronics and the Internet. Alan Greenspan, among so many, has spoken frequently of the ‘new paradigm’, referring specifically to computers, telecommunications and the Internet as the source of the remarkable recent spurt of growth in the US economy. These industries were growing in the United States in the 1990s at a very high rate and accounted for the greater part of growth in the entire economy. But the same factors accounting for growth generated the largest speculative bubble in the history of the US, based on the ‘irrational exuberance’ of the stock market in response to the immense potential of the Internet and other new technologies, and its collapse led consequently to depression since the spring of 2000.
The impact of this immense technological revolution for the generation of periods of expansion and contraction, i.e. of business cycles, is the object of this chapter.